Solar Storm Possible in 2012

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Friday, January 09, 2009 
A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm.
Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.
The prediction is based in part on a major solar storm in 1859 that caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires.
It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more is at risk.
"A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions," the researchers conclude.
'Command and control might be lost' < =text/ _extended="true"> var adsonar_placementId="1426008",adsonar_pid="256757",adsonar_ps="-1",adsonar_zw=224;adsonar_zh=93,adsonar_jv="ads.adsonar.com"; qas_writeAd(); 
When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.
The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.
Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.
Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.
"Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states.
Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt.
"Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.
"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report.
Stormy past
Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time:
— In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada.
— A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter.

"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity."
"Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet," the report states. "Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting."
Rush to prepare
The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is expected to come around 2012.
While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment, and severe space weather — how severe, nobody knows — will ramp up a year or two before the peak.
Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks.
"A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future."
The report was commissioned and funded by NASA. Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated. It was released this week.

Source:  http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,478024,00.html

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MsInformation Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Forum Moderator Joined: 26 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 175	Post Options Post Reply Quote MsInformation Report Post Quote Reply Topic: Solar Storm Possible in 2012 Posted: 26 Jan 2010 at 5:41am
	Friday, January 09, 2009 A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm. Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation. The prediction is based in part on a major solar storm in 1859 that caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires. It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more is at risk. "A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions," the researchers conclude. 'Command and control might be lost' < =text/ _extended="true"> var adsonar_placementId="1426008",adsonar_pid="256757",adsonar_ps="-1",adsonar_zw=224;adsonar_zh=93,adsonar_jv="ads.adsonar.com"; qas_writeAd(); When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth. The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers. Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes. Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems. "Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states. Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt. "Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder. "Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report. Stormy past Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time: — In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada. — A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter. "Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity." "Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet," the report states. "Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting." Rush to prepare The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is expected to come around 2012. While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment, and severe space weather — how severe, nobody knows — will ramp up a year or two before the peak. Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks. "A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future." The report was commissioned and funded by NASA. Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated. It was released this week. Source: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,478024,00.html

Diamond Death Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Group Joined: 25 Jan 2010 Location: USA Online Status: Offline Posts: 4	Post Options Post Reply Quote Diamond Death Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 28 Jan 2010 at 5:49pm
	Solar Storm, Electoral Elections, 2012 is already on a path of dystruction, of course I was there for Y2K and Bird Flu, they jury is still out on swine flu, but I know 2012 will be bad......for sure. http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=35341 Diamond
	The date came and you were no more.

Evergreen Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Group Joined: 22 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 6	Post Options Post Reply Quote Evergreen Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 02 Feb 2010 at 11:31am
	Solar flares get my vote. D

Evergreen Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Group Joined: 22 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 6	Post Options Post Reply Quote Evergreen Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 02 Feb 2010 at 1:00pm
	From The Sunday Times January 31, 2010 Nasa mission to unravel sun’s threat to Earth A new probe could help scientists predict the solar storms that cause chaos for us Scientists have designed a space probe to peer deep beneath the solar surface and observe how sunlight is generated Chris Hastings and Jonathan Leake NASA is to embark on one of its most ambitious missions in an attempt to unlock the secrets of the sun. Following its launch in nine days’ time, the US space agency’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will spend five years in orbit trying to discover the causes of extreme solar activity, such as sun spots and solar winds and flares. Scientists have long been aware that disturbances on the sun can trigger dangerous x-rays, charged particles and magnetic fields that can disrupt power supplies, communication signals and aircraft navigation systems on Earth. By understanding how such solar phenomena are created, they hope to be able to produce reliable forecasts of “space weather” and provide advance warnings of any threat. Orbiting the Earth at a distance of 22,300 miles, the observatory will measure fluctuations in the sun’s ultraviolet output, map magnetic fields and photograph its surface and atmosphere. Experts have likened the mission to a “giant microscope” that will capture for the first time every nuance of the sun’s exterior. The images relayed to Earth will be 10 times clearer than high-definition television. Barbara Thompson, project scientist, said: “It is Nasa’s first weather mission and it aims to characterise everything on the sun that can impact on the Earth and near Earth. “We know things happen on the sun which affect spacecraft, communications and radio signals. If we can understand the underlying causes of what is happening then we can turn this information into forecasts. “The key thing about the mission is that it is not just pure science for its own sake. There is likely to be a direct and immediate benefit for people.” Solar magnetic storms and space weather disturbances have had a number of dramatic consequences over the years. On March 13, 1989, millions of people in Canada and the United States were left without electricity for more than nine hours after a magnetic storm sent shockwaves through the Hydro-Québec power grid. Five years later, a geomagnetic storm temporarily knocked out two Canadian satellites and Intelsat-K, an international communications satellite. The most powerful solar storm in history, known as a “superstorm”, occurred on September 1, 1859. It caused the failure of telegraph systems in Europe and North America. The storm produced auroras — phenomena normally only seen near the poles — which were visible in Cuba, Mexico and Italy. The lights were so bright in California’s Rocky Mountains that gold prospectors mistook them for dawn and began preparing breakfast. Transpolar aircraft are particularly sensitive to space weather because they rely on navigation systems for the entire duration of a flight. Nasa estimates that the SDO will transmit as much as 50 times more scientific data than any other mission in the space agency’s history. Each image will consist of more than 16m pixels and the amount of data sent back to Earth daily will be equivalent to downloading 500,000 songs a day from the internet. In order to process the data, the organisation has set up a pair of dedicated radio antennae near Las Cruces, New Mexico. The SDO’s orbit will match the speed of the rotation of the Earth, meaning that it will be in constant view of the two 59ft dishes throughout the mission. The UK-based Science and Technology Facilities Council is supplying some of the equipment for the observatory. Professor Richard Harrison, of the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire, said understanding the impact of the sun’s magnetic fields was key to the mission. “The idea is to image different layers of the sun’s atmosphere all the way down to the surface and measure magnetic fields,” he said. “The bottom line is that you are trying to understand how this atmosphere works. We can already see phenomena like the flares. The question is how does the magnetic field form to allow this sort of thing to happen.” Copyright 2010 Times Newspapers Ltd.

Mahshadin Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Group Joined: 22 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 25	Post Options Post Reply Quote Mahshadin Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 12 Mar 2010 at 8:37pm
	Earth and the Sun This illustration shows the approximate size of Earth compared to the Sun. The giant coronal mass ejection in the image blasted off the Sun in October 2003. The image was taken by the international SOHO spacecraft. Image Credit: NASA and European Space Agency http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/multimedia/display.cfm?IM_ID=188 l

roni3470 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Experienced Member Joined: 22 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 19	Post Options Post Reply Quote roni3470 Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 15 Mar 2010 at 12:12pm
	Yikes!

Mahshadin Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Group Joined: 22 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 25	Post Options Post Reply Quote Mahshadin Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 20 Mar 2010 at 10:25am
	roni3470 That pic certainly puts things in perspective huh If anyone interested here is a site that tracks (Space Weather) NOAA (Space Weather Prediction Center) Some items updated every 15 minutes or so. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html

Mahshadin Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Group Joined: 22 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 25	Post Options Post Reply Quote Mahshadin Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 24 Mar 2010 at 9:25pm
	Taking the "Surprise" out of Surprise Solar Storms Scientists are learning to predict giant solar storms that could, at any time, hit the Earth and produce cascading catastrophes March 18, 2010 From Sept. 1 to 2, 1859, the sun blasted out a massive, record-breaking coronal mass ejection (CME)--a huge eruption of highly charged gases and plasma that may have weighed as much as a billion tons. Racing through the solar system at several million miles per hour, the CME eventually collided with the Earth's magnetosphere--an invisible, atmospheric cocoon surrounding the planet that is filled with charged particles controlled by the Earth's magnetic field. Hit by the CME, the Earth's magnetosphere temporarily went into a haywire state known as a geomagnetic storm. The result: skies were set ablaze all over the world with technicolor auroras that reached as far south as Cuba and El Salvador, and blew out global telegraph systems, the highest-tech communication devices of the day. The 1859 geomagnetic storm, called the Carrington Storm, was the largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. "But there is absolutely no reason why the Earth couldn't be hit by an equally or even more violent geomagnetic storm today, tomorrow, or the next day," said Sarah Gibson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. Because the Carrington storm occurred during relatively low-tech times, the havoc it unleashed provided but a tame preview of what would happen if a contemporary Carrington-like storm were to hit our technology-dependent society. In fact, according to a report by the National Academy of Sciences, a contemporary Carrington-like storm could trigger cascading catastrophes, including melted transformers that could shut down large, interconnected power grids, power outages affecting as many as 130 million people, backed-up sewage systems, the failure of electronic transportation systems, and the collapse of systems used to distribute drinking water, food, medicines and fuel. But a geomagnetic storm would not even have to reach Carrington's record-breaking strength to cause serious damage. In recent years, weaker geomagnetic storms have damaged technological systems like satellites, increased the radiation exposure of astronauts, disrupted communication and navigation systems and knocked out power to large populations. CMEs are associated with peaks in the activity of sunspots, which are knots of magnetism on the sun's surface generated by subsurface movements of solar material. (Sunspots appear dark because they are cooler and therefore less bright than their hotter surroundings.) Sunspot activity peaks about every 11 years; this 11-year cycle is, in turn, related to a 22-year cycle of reversals in the sun's magnetic field. During a typical 11-year sunspot cycle, the sun hurls about 100 severe CMEs and about four extreme CMEs into the solar system--only a fraction of which usually hit the Earth. Such CMEs are most likely to occur during peaks in sunspot activity, and are less likely to occur during periods of low sunspot activity. "But," warns Gibson, "CMEs still occur during periods of low sunspot activity; but they are just fewer and further between than during active sunspot periods. And so it is still very possible for a fierce geomagnetic storm to occur during a solar minimum." Because scientists vigilantly watch for CMEs through high-tech telescopes and because it usually takes two or three days for most of a CME's impacts to reach the Earth, scientists can anticipate geomagnetic storms once Earth-directed CMEs start. Nevertheless, scientists cannot yet forecast when CMEs will start. With funding from the National Science Foundation, scientists at NCAR are currently using various methods to improve their understanding of CMEs and their ability to forecast them. Among these methods are computer simulations of CMEs that describe their physical properties based on conditions on the sun and Earth and the laws of magnetism, electricity, gravity and thermodynamics--as shown in the above image and an animated simulation of a CME. Some simulations are based on hypothetical data that is designed to reflect typical solar events. But other simulations are based on specific data collected on a particular day and are designed to recreate actual CMEs. Data incorporated into such simulations may include, for example, the Earth's position relative to the sun during the CME; the mass, composition, size and electrical charge of the CME; and conditions immediately around the Earth upon the CME's arrival. By comparing their simulation with direct observations of the real-life CME it was designed to recreate, scientists can evaluate their simulation's accuracy and improve it. This Discovery article was previously provided to LiveScience in partnership with the National Science Foundation. Investigators Sarah Gibson Jon Linker Roberto Lionello Zoran Mikic Dusan Odstrcil Animation http://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/SME/index.shtml http://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116594&org=NSF

MsInformation Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Forum Moderator Joined: 26 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 175	Post Options Post Reply Quote MsInformation Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 11:20am
	The really scary thing about this is not only can it happen again, but it could be a larger storm than 1859. Atmospheric storms, like hurricanes, can have different levels of severity. As dependent as we are on satellites, electricity, etc, this world would be hurt badly if 1859 were to repeat itself at the same severity or higher.

Mahshadin Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Group Joined: 22 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 25	Post Options Post Reply Quote Mahshadin Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 25 Apr 2010 at 10:46am
	Shots From the New SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) Launched Feb 2010 AMAZING For shot Videos from NASA from (SDO) http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/firstlight/movies/prominence20100330_sm.mov http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/firstlight/movies/active_region_sm.mov http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/firstlight/movies/multiwave_zm_sm.mov Or here http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/firstlight/ l

Mahshadin Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Group Joined: 22 Jan 2010 Online Status: Offline Posts: 25	Post Options Post Reply Quote Mahshadin Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 25 Apr 2010 at 12:38pm
	NASA giving new meaning to an old Phrase (A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words)

premeet01245 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Visit Members Homepage Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Joined: 25 Apr 2010 Location: DELHI Online Status: Offline Posts: 34	Post Options Post Reply Quote premeet01245 Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 03 Jun 2010 at 5:01am
	can I apply in it?
	Pranic Healing India \| Know the media Best Astrology <

premeet01245 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Visit Members Homepage Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Joined: 25 Apr 2010 Location: DELHI Online Status: Offline Posts: 34	Post Options Post Reply Quote premeet01245 Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 10 Jun 2010 at 7:05am
	please reply me some one I an waiting. thanks
	Pranic Healing India \| Know the media Best Astrology <

Rickster Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Group Joined: 25 Jan 2010 Location: Sydney Online Status: Offline Posts: 27	Post Options Post Reply Quote Rickster Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 18 Jun 2010 at 2:53pm
	The sun is awakening after a period of inactivity .....the next few years will see the return of solar flares. How will they fit into the 2012 scenarios?

Solar Storm Possible in 2012

Nasa mission to unravel sun’s threat to Earth

A new probe could help scientists predict the solar storms that cause chaos for us