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Potential Solar Storm Awareness

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    Posted: 02 Mar 2010 at 10:26pm
Overdue Since 1921, Next Solar Storm Could Disrupt Much of World
Tuesday, March 02, 2010

When the last massive solar storm struck earth, modern civilization was without the electronic- and wireless-based communications that are now so critical to day-to-day living. Researchers recently conducted a simulation to see how countries might fare if the earth was subjected to a huge burst of electromagnetic radiation, and the results were not good.

 
A solar storm similar in size to those unleashed by the sun in 1921 and 1859 could result in millions of people around the world losing access to electricity, running water and phone service. The tabletop exercise, held in Boulder, Colorado, found that radio signals and GPS devices were vulnerable to a rush of radiation hitting the planet. Also, communications satellites responsible for relaying television signals and other data could get taken out by the next storm, described by scientists as a solar equivalent to Hurricane Katrina.
-Noel Brinkerhoff
http://www.allgov.com/Unusual_News/ViewNews/Overdue_Since_1921_Next_Solar_Storm_Could_Disrupt_Much_of_World_100302

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Post Options Post Options   Quote MsInformation Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2010 at 10:28pm

Massive Solar Storms of the Future Could Reap Katrina-Scale Devastation

If storms as strong as the biggest recorded in the last few two centuries, our electronics-dependent world of today could be in trouble
By Jeremy Hsu Posted 03.01.2010 at 1:45 pm 18 Comment

No electricity, no running water, and no phone service for millions of people. That scenario could easily become reality if a solar storm as intense as those found throughout the history of our planet were to strike Earth today. NPR reported on FEMA's recent simulation of such a storm, and the grim conditions it uncovered.

Solar storms take place when the sun's surface erupts and spews radiation or electrically charged particles toward Earth. The more frequent minor storms may cause some radio interference and create the Northern Lights spectacle known as the aurora borealis. But every few decades can see a huge solar storm that releases the energy of 1 billion hydrogen bombs.

Events of that magnitude took place in both 1921 and 1859, before the world had become reliant upon satellites and electronic devices in everyday life. A recent exercise held in Boulder, Colorado simulated a worst-case scenario based on that storm, and involved both space weather experts and officials from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

In the simulation, the solar storm first disabled most commercial satellites that transmit everything from phone conversations to TV, not to mention credit card transactions at the gas station pump. The next day, the storm created electric currents in power lines that destroyed most transformers around the world, and cut out electricity for much of the northern latitudes.

Individuals or families should simply prepare for the event like any other natural disaster by having emergency supplies always ready, experts say. But the disruption would reach a grand scale that people have only glimpsed before during major blackouts.

There's no good defense against such an event. All that scientists can do is hope to build a better warning system by monitoring the sun's activity with new solar observatories.

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2010-03/massive-solar-storms-mean-bad-news-bears-earth
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Post Options Post Options   Quote MsInformation Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2010 at 10:31pm
NASA Now Ready to Detect World-threatening Solar "Storm of the Century"
Jason Mick (Blog) - March 2, 2010 9:01 AM

New satellite could detect brewing trouble, allow disaster organizations to make plans

The year was 1859 and in the U.S. the roots of Civil War were brewing.  However, in outer space a far worse threat was stewing.  Explosions on the surface of the sun ensued with far greater than usual fury and the Earth was swept with solar radiation from solar flares.  Around the country telegraph lines exploded, causing fires, and crippled our nation's communication.

Fast forward to the present.  The U.S. has not experienced such a storm in decades.  In orbit are a host of vital, yet vulnerable, electronics (satellites) that provide everything from television to other critical communications.  Around the globe, high energy transformers power the industrialized world's hunger for power.  But a solar "storm of the century" -- like the one of 1859 -- could destroy all of that in a mere day, frying first satellites and then transformers via a bombardment of high energy electrons, ultimately plunging much of the world in darkness and leaving many without running water.

Last month NASA launched the Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.  The new satellite is packed with electronics that can measure details of the sun's atmosphere, its surface, and even its interior.  It will surely yield stunning new insight into how our solar system's power plant works.  However, pure research aside, its most crucial mission may be in detect super solar storms -- as NASA puts it, a "space Katrina".

Solar activity, a phenomena that typically follows a 11-year cycle, reached a record low in 2008 and 2009 with almost no sunspots being detected.  Some researchers say that means that it may rebound to a peak of record activity when activity reaches a maximum again sometime between 2012 and 2015.

A solar storm occurs when activity on the sun -- huge explosions containing the force of scores of atom bombs -- send magnetically charged particles hurtling toward the Earth's magnetic field, our planet's built in protection against solar activity.

Such an event could cause hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars in damage.  In 1989 a solar storm knocked out power to 6 million in Quebec, and in 2006 a storm knocked out GPS coverage for half of the globe.  However, those storms might look garden-variety compared to what NASA says could come.

A solar storm could kill or injure astronauts in space at the time and travelers flying near the Earth's poles.

The SDO's greatest promise is that it's giving officials a means of detecting a dangerous solar event as it brews up, not as its happening.  By the time it happens, its largely too late to prepare for it, but detecting it early could give time for preparations.

The satellite sits in geosynchronous orbit steadily viewing the sun, taking an image every 1.25 seconds, and sending a total of 1.5 TB of data back to Earth daily.

The satellite contains a wealth of high tech equipment designed by researchers at the University of Colorado in Boulder and Lockheed Martin in Palo Alto, California.  Among its instruments are the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager or HMI, which detect magnetic waves traveling through the sun that could trigger solar eruptions; the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly or AIA, which studies the sun's corona and watches for changes; and the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment or EVE, which scans for incoming ultraviolet rays, which could impact satellites and hamper GPS communications.

The satellite wasn't cheap -- it went $56M USD over budget, with a final estimated cost of $856M USD for construction, launch, five years of operation, and six years of data analysis.  With a scrubbed launch on February 10 (the launch occurred the next day), the cost might be even higher.

Still, that investment will likely be worth it as it grants the Earth an eye in space that will likely be able to watch for trouble for at least ten years.  Describes Phil Chamberlin, the deputy project scientist for SDO, "You look at the sun and [in the past would] say, 'Whoops, we just saw a big flare, it's going to affect us.'"

Now we're prepared, though.  If a "space Katrina" fires up, at least we'll be ready to brace for it this time.

http://www.dailytech.com/NASA+Now+Ready+to+Detect+Worldthreatening+Solar+Storm+of+the+Century/article17809.htm

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